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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still