Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
