Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
